Apple market share to slip as Vista temporarily rules, analyst says

Gregg Keizer   Today’s Top Stories   or  Other Windows Stories  

IT Leadership Strategy: How to Provide World-Class Help Desk Support Forrester Best Practices: Improve IT Service Delivery and Support with Remote Services Make Customer Experience a Cornerstone of Your Revenue Strategy The Next Generation of Configuration Management NetApp and Microsoft Virtualization: Making Integrated Server and Storage Virtualization a Reality Learn how Xythos and Microsoft enable customers to benefit from the best of both approaches to document management and collaboration. Computerworld Report- Large Enterprises Pay More for IPAM Computerworld Technology Briefing: Intelligent Users Use Business Intelligence Virtual Reality Sign up to receive Windows Resource Alerts

February 16, 2007 (Computerworld) -- A surge in Vista-driven PC sales will temporarily dilute Apple Inc.'s share of the computer market, a financial analyst predicted today -- even though his own survey of a national electronics chain found most stores have sold fewer copies of Windows Vista than expected.

In a note to investors, Piper Jaffray & Co. analyst Gene Munster said that the pent-up demand for Vista will put more Windows-equipped PCs in customers' hands in the January-March quarter of 2007. That, in turn, means Apple's share of the market will slip slightly, from 2.5% in December 2006 to 2.3% in March 2007.

Even so, Munster found that of 50 Best Buy stores in the U.S., 80% had sold fewer copies of Vista than they had anticipated. Still, 72% of those stores claimed that Vista is driving PC sales.

The Mac market share dip doesn't necessarily mean Apple will sell fewer computers. Instead, Munster said that the Vista-boosted uptick in overall PC sales gives Apple the opportunity to sell even more Macs.

"As PC buyers consider upgrading to Vista, which in many cases involves the purchase of a new computer, Apple is recognizing its opportunity to gain mind share with consumers," Munster said in his report. "The company views this season of Vista-related computer purchases as an opportunity to sell more Macs."

In its most recently reported sales figures, Apple said it had sold 1.6 million machines in the last three months of 2006, virtually the same number it sold in the previous three months.

Later in 2007, Munster said Apple will reap fiduciary rewards from the release of its new operating system, Mac OS X 10.5, known as Leopard. The new operating system, tagged with a vague release date of spring by Apple executives, will add $130 million in revenues to the quarter ending June 30, said Munster.

"Assuming a late April launch, this would lead to Leopard shipping 2.6 million copies in the first month of availability and adding $456 million to FY07, shipping about 9 million copies in the first year," projected Munster. By comparison, Apple listed revenues of $347 million in the last quarter of 2006 under the "Software, Services and Other Sales" category.

Munster predicted that 40% of Mac users will upgrade to Leopard, a figure similar to the percentage that moved up to Mac OS X 10.4 Tiger when it rolled out in April 2005.

Munster also said that in the long term, Apple is well placed to boost its market share, especially because of its strength in laptop sales, a part of the hardware pie that has been growing most rapidly. "We are confident that Mac market share will rise; as the PC market shifts toward portables, Apple's market share will benefit from higher share in this category."

In the last three months of 2006, for example, Apple sold 969,000 portables and 637,000 desktops. The number of Mac laptops sold jumped 65% over the same period the year before, while desktop units sold dropped by 4% during that same time.

Print this Story

Send Us Feedback

E-mail this Story

Digg this Story

Slashdot this Story

"What do you call Microsoft offering free Windows 7 upgrades to Vista PC buyers after July 1, 2009? A good..." Read more... "I read with great interest Greg Keizer's article..." Read more... Read more Windows posts or See all Blogs

Microsoft's Web site overwhelmed by would-be Windows 7 downloaders FAQ: How to get the Windows 7 beta Google: Chrome in 'never-ending' beta More top stories...

Review: Windows 7 Beta 1 shows off new task bar, more UI goodies Elgan: Palm and Sony out-Apple Apple Memory card standard could provide up to 2TB on an SD card

The 9 hottest skills for '09 The downturn has softened the IT talent market but done little to weaken demand for SAP, .Net and other technical skills. Fast fixes for common PC problems Every computer user hits a speed bump now and then. Here are some speedy, simple solutions to hardware, software, network, Internet and mobile-device crises. Apple's 5 biggest moments in 2008 From the iPhone 3G to 'unibody' MacBooks, 2008 was a standout year for Apple. Hands-on Linux: New distro versions push the envelope We've got reviews and videos of the new Ubuntu 8.10, Fedora 10 and openSUSE 11.1. Windows 7 Get the latest news, reviews and more about Microsoft's newest desktop operating system More Continuing Coverage Windows 7 Voting Technology Google's Chrome browser Economy in turmoil: Latest news and tips iPhone 3G Bill Gates moves on Windows Vista A to Z Mac A to Z 2008 Salary Survey Find wage data for 50 IT job titles. More Special Reports 2009 Premier 100 IT Leaders 2008 Premier 100 IT Leaders 2007 Premier 100 IT Leaders 2008 Best Places to Work in IT 2007 Best Places to Work in IT 2008 Salary Survey 2007 Salary Survey 2006 Salary Survey 2008 IT Forecast 2007 IT Forecast 40 Years of Computerworld Top 12 Green-IT Users The FAQs About Going Green IT Schools to Watch iPhone: One Year Later Global Mobile Your Next Data Center Management: Reinventing IT Stop Data Leaks Web 2.0 Security Surviving Disasters Managing Storage Virtualization The Lean Storage Machine Storage on Trial Can Web 2.0 Save BI? Bypass These BI Potholes All Zones Business Continuity Zone The File Data Management Zone Security Management Zone The SAS Zone Business Intelligence and Analytics Zone The Enterprise Search Zone Software as a Service Zone The Security Zone See your link here

Symantec Backup Exec System Recovery-Restore Systems Anytime, from Anywhere to Virtually Any Device Download this white paper, FREE, compliments of Symantec! Restore Windows systems quickly, easily, and reliably to dissimilar hardware, virtual environments or in remote, unattended locations. Watch this Symantec webcast to learn how you can perform bare metal system recovery in minutes, meet and exceed service level agreements and recovery time objectives, and minimize requirements for remote on-site IT support. Download this executive briefing  Winning Enterprise Authentication: 5 Key Steps for Success Winning Enterprise Authentication: 5 Key Steps for Success View this on demand webcast, compliments of Entrust, for a limited time only! Go to the webcast  The Importance of Application Management Get this white paper now! (Source: Dell) Efficient desktop application management is essential in normal day-to-day operations of any company. Whether you are introducing a new application or implementing an OS migration, the goal is the same: minimize disruptions and ensure user productivity throughout the process. Download this white paper  White Papers Read up on the latest ideas and technologies from companies that sell hardware, software and services. Learn how Xythos and Microsoft enable customers to benefit from the best of both approaches to document management and collaboration. NetApp and VMware Virtual Infrastructure 3 Storage Best Practices Environmental Sustainability and Networking View more whitepapers

• Microsoft's Web site overwhelmed by would-be Windows 7 downloaders
• Review: Windows 7 Beta 1 shows off new task bar, more UI goodies
• FAQ: How to get the Windows 7 beta
• More top stories 

Accelerate your pursuit of perfection For almost 80 years, Kodak has been helping banks, insurance companies, healthcare providers, government agencies and other businesses produce billions of document images. So Kodak is uniquely positioned to know and deliver–what customers want: easy-to-use scanners that output the best possible image quality. Download this white paper now!

Virtualization Technologies and Their Impact on Disaster Recovery Double-Take Software delivers enterprise-class disaster recovery and high availability solutions for cutting-edge virtual environments. Learn how your business can leverage virtual technologies to achieve complete confidence in the unparalleled data protection, availability, and recoverability while simplifying your overall IT management. Download this white paper now!

Dan Tynan: CES preview: The wireless revolution is finally here Two themes are clearly emerging: gadgets are going wireless in a big way, and everything is finally getting connected. ... [more]